Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
